The big idea: can we predict the climate of the future?

We're pouring money into computer models - but could they lead us astray?Predicting the future lies at the heart of responding to climate change. We want to know what things will look like if we take certain actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions - and what they will look like if we don't. The difference between the two provides the basis for weighing up the various climate policies that might be on the table.But we aren't drawn to predictions just because we're interested in policy choices. Climate change is scary. We're now regularly confronted with evidence of its impacts: droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, floods and so on. Predictions provide a peculiar sort of comfort: at least we have some idea of what the outcomes might look like. We can see what's over the cliff rather than just imagining a void. Faced with the daunting threat of a changing world, it just feels better to know what the future might look like. Continue reading...